2028 Portfolio Update: Current holdings: ethereum:0x643c4e15d7d62ad0abec4a9bd4b001aa3ef52d66, ethereum:0xd533a949740bb3306d119cc777fa900ba034cd52, $META, ethereum:0x5a98fcbea516cf06857215779fd812ca3bef1b32, $NEAR I've added some more cash to this portfolio, so actual return is only 20% so far. I have mostly sized up these coins and moved positions around between them. The goal is to be a little blind about this and just hold onto them for longer than I would usually feel comfortable on the premise that what we saw was a generational bottom. Given my feelings on OTHERS that I have shared, and analysis of OTHERS by @GeoMetric_9, I feel very comfortable with the idea of holding on to these for a long time. I think they are strong assets with a clear floor not too far beneath us in the worst case. - I sold UNI because it was a low confidence hold, and that was a mistake lol. - I sized up META which has the most potential to be reflexive, and sized up SYRUP, which I feel most comfortable buying for a 3-5x upside. - Curve has been a surprise hit. I increased my exposure to it since at this stage, adding to coins that out-move the market seems like an easy win. - LDO and NEAR are boring but I want to keep my exposure to them for the future. With LDO specifically I expect a pump when ETH hits $3k and the market realizes they start their buyback. Overall I like this positioning, but I think the best move would be to invest heavily in the coins out-moving others rn, and the category is clear: ETH infrastructure. I feel very comfortable holding ETH infra. I think it will be a winning few years for anything in that category.
It does feel like we've seen a regime shift from bear to bull conditions recently. I still see bearish posts all over the timeline about perps-driven rallies, open interest, etc. Now, though, it feels like they're actively searching for something that looks bad, aping the prescient posts from the last few months. I can definitely see more chop, and I can definitely see returning to some scary lows, but I can't see diving very far below them anymore. In other words, it's time to buy coins. A drop in prices should be viewed primarily as a gift. We have had "alt season" calls made and retracted multiple times over the past two months. During that entire period TOTAL3ES/BTC has risen higher, OTHERS/BTC has risen higher, and some favorite coins have given way to others. From ZEC/HYPE/NEAR/VVV to "Solana Season" to memes to Lighter. All of these coins have seen strong pumps without the bottom falling out of the market. The bears who were call every single one of those mini manias a top have not been rewarded. To me, this just demonstrates that we're running out of downside.
It does feel like we've seen a regime shift from bear to bull conditions recently. I still see bearish posts all over the timeline about perps-driven rallies, open interest, etc. Now, though, it feels like they're actively searching for something that looks bad, aping the prescient posts from the last few months. I can definitely see more chop, and I can definitely see returning to some scary lows, but I can't see diving very far below them anymore. In other words, it's time to buy coins. A drop in prices should be viewed primarily as a gift. We have had "alt season" calls made and retracted multiple times over the past two months. During that entire period TOTAL3ES/BTC has risen higher, OTHERS/BTC has risen higher, and some favorite coins have given way to others. From ZEC/HYPE/NEAR/VVV to "Solana Season" to memes to Lighter. All of these coins have seen strong pumps without the bottom falling out of the market. The bears who were call every single one of those mini manias a top have not been rewarded. To me, this just demonstrates that we're running out of downside.
$DRIFT just printed the largest volume bar on the chart without the price moving at all. $TON did the same thing two months ago: largest volume bar on the chart, price didn't budge. A few days later, however, an announcement took the price 3x in a few days. Why not... https://t.co/iIT4leUuY0
Where can a bug come from? - Circuit spec: Never happened before - Circuit impl error: Protected by FV. - FV specs not being correct. I don't believe in risk for missing circuit spec <> FV spec guarantees. - Fatal compilation error for FV. (I believe this is impossible for R1CS - Tachyon) - FV language is wrong: Its pretty machine checkable. Have AI just also fact check the proof. - ZKP Verifier has no bugs (We will just FV it too) So the end state risk becomes just the circuit spec. But its honestly quite high-level simple? We then FV each relevant property of the high-level functions as well. Then there is the cryptography itself. EC operations / Lattices / Hashes, what-not. There lindy-ness does a lot. EC's aren't getting broken until quantum computers. Hashes have stood the ~entire history of cryptography, they will remain secure. Lattices, I have less certainty on.
Not gonna go straight to ATH from here. Not thinking it’s over either. Something like this? https://t.co/8CiYLYoYSM
My favorite charts are ones that look like they're out of sellers. $CULT continues to look like an obvious buy. Lots of drama in the market, but not a lot of drama on the cult chart. It's down less than a lot of much larger coins today. While the entire chart shows a huge OBV divergence, today's price action alone does as well. A new low on the regular char, a small correction on OBV.
I have apparently not been talking about $cult enough. Been very tempted to add to my bag these past few days. I think I'll do so now.