来聊一下$Pump未来必经的惊险一跃 最近对这个票很感兴趣，是在 $HOOD / $HYPE / $POLY / $CARDS / $ZRO 之外为数不多让我感到可以蛮性感的一个标的。Risk:reward也比较明确，但是其Upside非常需要执行+想象力，属于一步步走出来加仓的类型。 - 先说估值。Pump 现在每天进账大概 1–1.5 mm 美金，年化 400–500 mm，折算不到 10×PE；对应的流通市值也就 3–4× Float。这意味着以现金流看，它已经很便宜，市场几乎没给任何“产品升级”的预期溢价。 - 我把$PUMP的下一步誉为整个公司的“惊险一跃”。 所谓“惊险一跃”，不是把 launcher 做得更炫，而是从 meme 发射器，跳到一个能让普通人用认知下注未来注意力的娱乐应用——你觉得什么会火，就押它一注；注意力做大后带来的商业价值，再被透过各种好玩的方式反馈到对应的币上，构成“注意力 → 变现 → 回流到币”的闭环。成功了，它就不再是工具，而是一个命运参与式娱乐平台。这里的重点是$PUMP的未来一定要是Entertainment App first-and-foremost，不然目前这个业态很容易消失在历史长河里。 - 跟团队交流后。Alon / Noah现在的方向很明确：100% 把所有精力资源转向移动端，尽快把信息流做成 娱乐+社交优先、投机为辅的娱乐产品；完全倒向抖音交替模式 -- 视频+直播内容将会是用户看到的第一状态；交互尽量低摩擦（右滑、拖拽就能下单），引进算法 - 按照互动 × 下单金额推送分发；KOL 与主播能一键开盘、建预测池、做回购或福利；用户这边有 Portfolio + Chat 把身份与关系收拢在一起。换而言之，Pump Mobile 将会往 Tiktok w/ speculative features 无限靠拢。 - 为什么这条路有意思？因为在 Web2，素人的流量基本一文不值，你有十几万播放也拿不到几块钱；在 Pump，交易手续费就是现金流，哪怕你只是把人带进来下了几单，平台的抽水也是真金白银，素人阶段的变现速度能直接媲美中等网红。注意力在这里不再虚，它立刻能变钱，接着再回流到币上。 - 那为什么大家会想赌呢？我认为有两个核心原因：第一是大环境让大家不得不赌，第二是Fungible Token本身是人类历史上最好的赌具 (better than every other gambling vehicles historically). - 为什么要赌的原因很现实：大家只要稍微思考一下生活，都会开始觉醒。AI + 机器人 把岗位压扁，资产整体估值又贵，稳定币将碾压大部分发展中国家，普通人的上升通道在变窄；贫富差距越拉越大，有资本者越滚越大，没资本者连上车资格都难。与其等“稳定路径”，不如去找 lop-sided bet——用几次正确的认知，为人生加一把杠杆。这代人真的相信自己看得准“什么会火”，也愿意为此下注。这种虚无主义的大趋势浩浩荡荡，韩国已是先例，未来几年，十几年应该会愈远愈烈。 - 为什么Token在我看来是最好的赌具？它的赔率上限可以接近彩票，但过程却让人感觉“可控”：靠你的眼力下注，随时加减仓、换标的、拉群互动；再叠加社交属性（主播带节奏、评论区共振、社区统一换 PFP），可操纵感 + 高赔率 + 社交快感 让参与者更有黏性。这种互联网时代的新博彩，可比传统博彩好玩太多了。 - 商业上，这种娱乐+博彩的设计自带飞轮：主播带来注意力 → 更多人看与交易 → 一部分主播与交易员真的赚到钱 → 更多人和主播涌入 → Pump 的抽水自然抬升。平台要的就是流动性和时长，参与者要的要么是关注，要么是收益，大家彼此成就。 - 难点也摆在那儿： ---第一，Pump上目前的内容非常水，飞轮第一步根本还没转起来。 ---第二，Pump的产品本身迭代速度还是慢，加上这种兴趣x交易量的推流算法完全是新东西。他们能不能做出来只能一步步看。 ---第三，没人能提前算准什么内容会火、能火多久，平台必须用产品与算法去拥抱这份不确定。 ---第四，娱乐与投机一体化在移动生态里要兼顾有趣、流畅、风控与合规，既要“上头”，又要“可持续”。这些feature全是新的。具体他们有没有这种想象力，到底这种feature存不存在，完全成疑。 ---第五，如何稳定把主播的商业价值作用回到币上（回购、分红池、任务回购等）并长期合理、跑得起来，是成败关键，目前看起来这个问题解决起来非常难。 能把这几道坎跨过去，Pump 的那一步，才算真正落地。不过吧，在4 Bn FDV，现金流充沛，并且大概确定了(a) 大额回购还会继续 + (b) 团队对公司和币价真的很上心的前提下，如果对于这种新时代的泛娱乐+投机一体的App需要下注的话，这个手握十几亿现金，创造了这个赛道的年轻团队或许还是值得赌一把的。

Name & Symbol: Pump.fun ($PUMP)
Address: pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn

Sep 15 - Sep 30 BidClub Biweekly Liquid Idea Reward Congrats to the $MNT writer for this week’s $2,000 reward. We have reached out for details. All posts will be public to non-members 14 days after submission; or find the summaries at https://t.co/00HyAV9UcG Bid Smarter. ---------------------------------------------- 1. $ZRO: Omnichain Tokenization - The Cycle Defining Narrative 2. $MNT: Mantle - 0 To 1 3. $XPL: Short Plasma ($XPL) at $10B 4. $KLED: 2-in-1 deal in own a pot'l upload-to-earn AI startup & points / tokens in possibly hot tokenization startup for pseudo-equity optionality 5. $PNKSTR: PunkStrategy - slightly sophisticated ponzi

Name & Symbol: Plasma ($XPL)
Address: 0x405fbc9004d857903bfd6b3357792d71a50726b0

Decent viewership + coverage in Asia (esp Chinese + Korea speaking) and think quite well-placed in the Binance ecosystem if CZ ever wants to ramp live-streaming fast amidst $PUMP doing it (w/ Four & Aster). Tbf not much revenue (500k mm annualized) and the recent $1mm USD airdrop fked the chart (lol) but think $K interesting now given the ecosystem dynamic w/ BNB / CAKE / etc all pumping.

Name & Symbol: Pump.fun ($PUMP)
Address: pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn

Decent viewership + coverage in Asia (esp Chinese + Korea speaking) and think quite well-placed in the Binance ecosystem if CZ ever wants to ramp live-streaming fast amidst $PUMP doing it (w/ Four & Aster). Tbf not much revenue (500k mm annualized) and the recent $1mm USD airdrop fked the chart (lol) but think $K interesting now given the ecosystem dynamic w/ BNB / CAKE / etc all pumping.

Name & Symbol: Sidekick ($K)
Address: 0x0a73d885cdd66adf69c6d64c0609e55c527db2be

Think a case could be made for $PUMP outperformance from here: - $SOL potential strength with folks trying to replicate $MSTR/ $BMNR with a spiritual leader + ETF revamp leading to chatting SOL beta - VC scam season back on which eventually leads to nihilism and rotation back to memes as fresh TGEs start underperforming - capital rotation back after rotating out onto stablecoin + perp dex, could see farmed points / tokens slowly flowing back to most FCF position core positions - the fundamental case stronger given consistent buyback and still chart-topping FCF with team clearly on the ball shipping / improving features. - wildcard upside optionally on them maybe figuring out streaming. Laura Shin is a good start and think mindshare x FDV can reflexively drive upside. Clear top priority for the team that feels underpriced given broad market skepticism.

Name & Symbol: Pump.fun ($PUMP)
Address: pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn

Aug 15 - Aug 31 BidClub Biweekly Liquid Idea Reward Congrats to the $GLXY writer for this week’s $2,000 reward. We will be reaching out for details. All posts will be public to non-members 14 days after submission. Bid Smarter. ----------------------------- - $LIGHT - The Hyperliquid of Launchpads - Pythenians: a Fogo airdrop play - $KMNO: Kamino: Solana’s Credit Router - $GLXY Boxed trade: Short $GLXY at 35-40 / share as Helios Upside priced in amidst crypto cycle top. Long $GLXY / short shitcoins or Long $GLXY at $15-18 / share to get >'26 Helios optionality for free - $META: MetaDAO: Fixing Fundraising on Solana - $WLFI: Short WLFI @~$30b For Generational Wealth - $DOLO -- levered beta to the $WLFI trade, potential future clarity on tie-up, CEX listings, DAT bids, and Pool1 / Pool2 Ponzu - $MNDE Token Is Seriously Undervalued – The Window for a Value Correction Is Here - $MNT - early days of BNB ? - $ENA: Ethena - strong fundamentals amidst token unlocks

Name & Symbol: Kamino ($KMNO)
Address: KMNo3nJsBXfcpJTVhZcXLW7RmTwTt4GVFE7suUBo9sS

Aug 15 - Aug 31 BidClub Biweekly Liquid Idea Reward Congrats to the $GLXY writer for this week’s $2,000 reward. We will be reaching out for details. All posts will be public to non-members 14 days after submission. Bid Smarter. ----------------------------- - $LIGHT - The Hyperliquid of Launchpads - Pythenians: a Fogo airdrop play - $KMNO: Kamino: Solana’s Credit Router - $GLXY Boxed trade: Short $GLXY at 35-40 / share as Helios Upside priced in amidst crypto cycle top. Long $GLXY / short shitcoins or Long $GLXY at $15-18 / share to get >'26 Helios optionality for free - $META: MetaDAO: Fixing Fundraising on Solana - $WLFI: Short WLFI @~$30b For Generational Wealth - $DOLO -- levered beta to the $WLFI trade, potential future clarity on tie-up, CEX listings, DAT bids, and Pool1 / Pool2 Ponzu - $MNDE Token Is Seriously Undervalued – The Window for a Value Correction Is Here - $MNT - early days of BNB ? - $ENA: Ethena - strong fundamentals amidst token unlocks

Name & Symbol: Dolomite ($DOLO)
Address: 0x0f81001ef0a83ecce5ccebf63eb302c70a39a654

Aug 15 - Aug 31 BidClub Biweekly Liquid Idea Reward Congrats to the $GLXY writer for this week’s $2,000 reward. We will be reaching out for details. All posts will be public to non-members 14 days after submission. Bid Smarter. ----------------------------- - $LIGHT - The Hyperliquid of Launchpads - Pythenians: a Fogo airdrop play - $KMNO: Kamino: Solana’s Credit Router - $GLXY Boxed trade: Short $GLXY at 35-40 / share as Helios Upside priced in amidst crypto cycle top. Long $GLXY / short shitcoins or Long $GLXY at $15-18 / share to get >'26 Helios optionality for free - $META: MetaDAO: Fixing Fundraising on Solana - $WLFI: Short WLFI @~$30b For Generational Wealth - $DOLO -- levered beta to the $WLFI trade, potential future clarity on tie-up, CEX listings, DAT bids, and Pool1 / Pool2 Ponzu - $MNDE Token Is Seriously Undervalued – The Window for a Value Correction Is Here - $MNT - early days of BNB ? - $ENA: Ethena - strong fundamentals amidst token unlocks

Name & Symbol: Dolomite ($DOLO)
Address: 0x0f81001ef0a83ecce5ccebf63eb302c70a39a654

Aug 15 - Aug 31 BidClub Biweekly Liquid Idea Reward Congrats to the $GLXY writer for this week’s $2,000 reward. We will be reaching out for details. All posts will be public to non-members 14 days after submission. Bid Smarter. ----------------------------- - $LIGHT - The Hyperliquid of Launchpads - Pythenians: a Fogo airdrop play - $KMNO: Kamino: Solana’s Credit Router - $GLXY Boxed trade: Short $GLXY at 35-40 / share as Helios Upside priced in amidst crypto cycle top. Long $GLXY / short shitcoins or Long $GLXY at $15-18 / share to get >'26 Helios optionality for free - $META: MetaDAO: Fixing Fundraising on Solana - $WLFI: Short WLFI @~$30b For Generational Wealth - $DOLO -- levered beta to the $WLFI trade, potential future clarity on tie-up, CEX listings, DAT bids, and Pool1 / Pool2 Ponzu - $MNDE Token Is Seriously Undervalued – The Window for a Value Correction Is Here - $MNT - early days of BNB ? - $ENA: Ethena - strong fundamentals amidst token unlocks

Name & Symbol: Kamino ($KMNO)
Address: KMNo3nJsBXfcpJTVhZcXLW7RmTwTt4GVFE7suUBo9sS

Actually think $PUMP is getting interesting here. Arguably similar R:R vs it being at 2.5 Bn: - now consistent with its 97% buyback - recouped market share vs Bonk - probably more catalyst coming with new products. I wonder if they’d do a DAT? - SOL pumping and people may look for beta to chase. one of the top beta (and most profitable) also being new coin with no unlock - Upside convexity as market heats up maybe we get memecoin runners - Weak hand HF and retail from ICO all dumped to chase other stuff. If you diamond handed prob not selling here - As it goes higher I think it’s kind of a must-own for funds that allocate to the space. Upside reclexivity. Could see a case it chasing towards the top Defi coins (008-010 per token)

Name & Symbol: Pump.fun ($PUMP)
Address: pumpCmXqMfrsAkQ5r49WcJnRayYRqmXz6ae8H7H9Dfn