𝐀𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐑 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐔𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤 𝐀𝐧𝐚𝐥𝐲𝐬𝐢𝐬 — 𝐂𝐨𝐮𝐧𝐭𝐝𝐨𝐰𝐧 𝐭𝐨 𝐍𝐨𝐯 𝟏𝟕 💥 In the crypto market, token unlocks are silent earthquakes — you don’t always see them coming, but when they hit, they reshape the landscape. Let’s decode what’s really happening with 𝐀𝐒𝐓𝐄𝐑 ($ASTER) and how its supply mechanics could drive the next big move 👇 🔶 𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲 𝐒𝐭𝐫𝐮𝐜𝐭𝐮𝐫𝐞 📊 ◆ 🟧 𝐌𝐚𝐱 𝐒𝐮𝐩𝐩𝐥𝐲: 8 billion $ASTER ◆ 🟧 𝐂𝐢𝐫𝐜𝐮𝐥𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠: ≈ 2 billion tokens (~25% of max) ◆ 🟧 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝: ≈ 6 billion tokens (~75%) ◆ 🟧 𝐍𝐞𝐱𝐭 𝐌𝐚𝐣𝐨𝐫 𝐔𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤: Nov 17 2025 → 164.7 million tokens (~8.16%) This means nearly 7.5–8% of the current circulating supply will be injected into the market in a single unlock cycle — a major supply event. 🔶 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐭’𝐬 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐝𝐞 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐔𝐧𝐥𝐨𝐜𝐤 📅 ◆ 🟧 𝐒𝐨𝐮𝐫𝐜𝐞: Ecosystem & Community allocations ◆ 🟧 𝐕𝐞𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐏𝐚𝐭𝐭𝐞𝐫𝐧: linear releases every month (~164.7 M each on Nov 17, Dec 17, Jan 17) ◆ 🟧 𝐋𝐨𝐜𝐤𝐞𝐝 𝐑𝐞𝐦𝐚𝐢𝐧𝐝𝐞𝐫: team & foundation tokens with 40 + month linear schedules If every newly unlocked token were sold, the market’s float would expand by ~8% overnight — the equivalent of printing hundreds of millions in paper value. 🔶 𝐌𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐭 𝐈𝐦𝐩𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐚𝐭𝐢𝐨𝐧𝐬 💣 📉 𝐒𝐡𝐨𝐫𝐭-𝐓𝐞𝐫𝐦 𝐃𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐑𝐢𝐬𝐤: An 8% supply injection equals roughly a 32% annualized inflation rate on circulating supply. Traders expecting this usually de-risk ahead of the event → price softens 2–3 days before unlock. Thin liquidity amplifies every sell — even modest selling from early investors can trigger 10–25% drawdowns. 📈 𝐒𝐞𝐥𝐥-𝐭𝐡𝐞-𝐑𝐮𝐦𝐨𝐫 𝐁𝐮𝐲-𝐭𝐡𝐞-𝐄𝐯𝐞𝐧𝐭 𝐏𝐥𝐚𝐲: If tokens remain staked or locked in reward pools, effective supply doesn’t expand. Shorts over-positioning for a dump can be squeezed → violent pump post-unlock. Combine that with CZ’s public purchase (~$2 M worth ASTER) and you get a “bullish narrative shield” around the project. 🔶 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐇𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬™ 𝐈𝐧𝐬𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭 🧠 🔹 Probability Matrix 📉 Dump Scenario — 65% chance 📈 Short-Squeeze Pump — 35% chance 🔹 Strategic Guidelines ◆ Exit or hedge longs 24–48 h pre-unlock (Nov 15–17 window). ◆ Watch on-chain flow of unlocked tokens → if they head to exchanges = dump alert. ◆ Accumulate post-unlock if whales retain holdings and no exchange spikes appear. ◆ Ideal re-entry zone = 1–3 days after unlock dip. 🔶 𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐇𝐞𝐢𝐠𝐡𝐭𝐬™ 𝐕𝐞𝐫𝐝𝐢𝐜𝐭 🚀 “Supply creates shock, narrative absorbs it.” The Nov 17 unlock is not just a token release — it’s a stress test for conviction. If $ASTER weathers this 8% supply wave without a deep correction, it will prove true demand exists beyond speculation. Expect high volatility around the event but remember — 𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐭𝐫𝐨𝐥𝐥𝐞𝐝 𝐫𝐢𝐬𝐤 𝐢𝐬 𝐩𝐨𝐰𝐞𝐫.